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Ceará U20 vs Tirol U20 Prediction— Brazil - Cearense U20

Semi-finals ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:30

Ceará U20

PPG 2.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Tirol U20

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-112.2%0-26.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.6%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.5%2-17.4%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.8%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 59.9% 1.67 -31.2%

Draw 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

Away win 30.1% 24.4% 4.10 +23.4%

Over 2.5 44.4% 61.7% 1.62 -28.1%

Over 3.5 22.9% 41.2% 2.43 -26.6%

BTTS 49.6% 63.3% 1.58 -21.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 62.1% 1.61 -48.3%

Away O1.5 29.8% 34.1% 2.93 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.6%

H 41% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceará U201.1

Tirol U201.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARÁ U20 · PPG 2.60

TIROL U20 · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 2.09 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ceará U20 (H) 41.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -31.2%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +3.7%

Tirol U20 (A) 30.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceará U20 face Tirol U20 in Brazil - Cearense U20 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceará U20 a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Tirol U20 30%, so Ceará U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ceará U20 and 1.0 for Tirol U20 (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceará U20 are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 2.00 for Tirol U20. This match finished 1-1.

Ceará U20 vs Tirol U20 Prediction— Brazil - Cearense U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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