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Vila Real FC U20 vs Ceará U20 Prediction— Brazil - Cearense U20

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Vila Real FC U20

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ceará U20

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.3%0-26.9%0-33.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.1%1-111.9%1-28.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.2%2-17.7%2-25.7%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.2%3-13.3%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 43.2% — — —

Over 2.5 60.7% — — —

Over 3.5 39.9% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 38.5% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vila Real FC U201.3

Ceará U201.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VILA REAL FC U20 · PPG 2.33

CEARÁ U20 · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vila Real FC U20 (H) 32.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ceará U20 (A) 43.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vila Real FC U20 face Ceará U20 in Brazil - Cearense U20 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vila Real FC U20 a 33% chance, the draw 24% and Ceará U20 43%, so Ceará U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vila Real FC U20 and 1.5 for Ceará U20 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vila Real FC U20 are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.33 for Ceará U20.

Vila Real FC U20 vs Ceará U20 Prediction— Brazil - Cearense U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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