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Fortaleza U20 vs Ferroviario U20 Prediction— Brazil - Cearense U20

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:00

Fortaleza U20

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ferroviario U20

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-14.0%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.7%1-17.5%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.4%2-17.0%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.5%3-14.4%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-13.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.7% — — —

Draw 21.5% — — —

Away win 14.8% — — —

Over 2.5 45.7% — — —

Over 3.5 28.3% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob45.4%

H 64% / xG 1.9-0.4 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.7%

#2 2–0 18.4%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 3–0 11.5%

#5 1–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza U201.9

Ferroviario U200.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA U20 · PPG 1.80

FERROVIARIO U20 · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza U20 (H) 63.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ferroviario U20 (A) 14.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza U20 face Ferroviario U20 in Brazil - Cearense U20 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza U20 a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Ferroviario U20 15%, so Fortaleza U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Fortaleza U20 and 0.4 for Ferroviario U20 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza U20 are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.33 for Ferroviario U20.

Fortaleza U20 vs Ferroviario U20 Prediction— Brazil - Cearense U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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