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Umeå FC Akademi vs Friska Viljor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Relegation Round ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Umeå FC Akademi

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Friska Viljor

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.8%0-26.0%0-34.2%0-4+3.6%1 1-04.1%1-18.6%1-29.0%1-36.3%1-4+5.3%2 2-03.1%2-16.5%2-26.8%2-34.7%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.6%3-13.2%3-23.4%3-32.4%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.7%4+-21.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 46.4% — — —

Over 2.5 67.2% — — —

Over 3.5 44.0% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 54.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob64.3%

A 46% / xG 1.5-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.6%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umeå FC Akademi1.5

Friska Viljor2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEÅ FC AKADEMI · PPG 1.00

FRISKA VILJOR · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.59 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Umeå FC Akademi (H) 31.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Friska Viljor (A) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Umeå FC Akademi face Friska Viljor in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umeå FC Akademi a 31% chance, the draw 22% and Friska Viljor 46%, so Friska Viljor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Umeå FC Akademi and 2.1 for Friska Viljor (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umeå FC Akademi are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Friska Viljor. This match finished 1-1.

Umeå FC Akademi vs Friska Viljor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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