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Boden vs Täfteå Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Boden

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Täfteå

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-110.0%0-29.8%0-36.4%0-4+4.9%1 1-05.2%1-110.1%1-210.0%1-36.5%1-4+5.0%2 2-02.6%2-15.2%2-25.1%2-33.3%2-4+2.5%3 3-00.9%3-11.8%3-21.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% 39.2% 2.55 -24.1%

Draw 21.6% 26.3% 3.80 -10.8%

Away win 55.0% 43.5% 2.30 +26.5%

Over 2.5 61.1% 69.0% 1.45 -11.4%

Over 3.5 38.2% 45.5% 2.20 -16.0%

BTTS 54.6% 70.4% 1.42 -22.5%

Home O1.5 32.1% 52.4% 1.91 -38.7%

Away O1.5 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob54.6%

A 55% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 10.0%

#3 0–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boden1.0

Täfteå2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BODEN · PPG 1.33

TÄFTEÅ · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.94 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Boden (H) 23.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -24.1%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.8%

Täfteå (A) 55.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boden face Täfteå in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boden a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Täfteå 55%, so Täfteå are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Boden and 2.0 for Täfteå (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boden are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Täfteå. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Boden vs Täfteå Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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