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Guabirá vs Real Tomayapo Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 13 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 00:00

Guabirá

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Tomayapo

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-11.5%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.9%1-14.8%1-22.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.3%2-17.7%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-18.1%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-017.0%4+-114.0%4+-25.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.0% 75.2% 1.33 -0.3%

Draw 16.6% 19.0% 5.25 -7.7%

Away win 8.4% 15.6% 6.40 -27.7%

Over 2.5 67.2% 75.2% 1.33 -10.6%

Over 3.5 46.8% 54.1% 1.85 -13.4%

BTTS 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Home O1.5 78.3% 80.0% 1.25 -2.1%

Away O1.5 20.4% 33.3% 3.00 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 75% / xG 3.2-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.8%

#2 2–0 9.3%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 4–0 7.7%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guabirá3.2

Real Tomayapo0.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GUABIRÁ · PPG 2.00

REAL TOMAYAPO · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.33 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Guabirá (H) 75.0%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -0.3%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -7.7%

Real Tomayapo (A) 8.4%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guabirá face Real Tomayapo in Bolivia - Primera División on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guabirá a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Real Tomayapo 8%, so Guabirá are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Guabirá and 0.8 for Real Tomayapo (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guabirá are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Real Tomayapo.

Guabirá vs Real Tomayapo Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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