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Independiente Petrolero vs Aurora Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 13 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 22:00

Independiente Petrolero

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aurora

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-19.6%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.9%1-112.8%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.5%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-13.8%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% 39.2% 2.55 +22.9%

Draw 26.8% 27.0% 3.70 -0.5%

Away win 25.0% 43.5% 2.30 -25.5%

Over 2.5 49.5% 67.6% 1.48 -26.7%

Over 3.5 28.9% 45.5% 2.20 -21.9%

BTTS 50.8% 70.4% 1.42 -27.9%

Home O1.5 38.3% 51.8% 1.93 -26.1%

Away O1.5 21.2% 55.6% 1.80 -37.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.8%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Petrolero1.3

Aurora0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 1.17

AURORA · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Petrolero (H) 48.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +22.9%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.5%

Aurora (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Petrolero face Aurora in Bolivia - Primera División on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Petrolero a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Aurora 25%, so Independiente Petrolero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Independiente Petrolero and 0.9 for Aurora (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Petrolero are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.50 for Aurora.

Independiente Petrolero vs Aurora Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bolivia - Primera División Predictions