Today / Bolivia - Primera División / ABB vs Real Oruro

ABB vs Real Oruro Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 13 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 19:00

ABB

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Oruro

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+11.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.3%0-21.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-02.3%1-14.0%1-23.5%1-32.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.6%2-16.4%2-25.6%2-33.3%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.8%3-16.7%3-25.9%3-33.5%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-111.8%4+-210.5%4+-36.2%4+-4+4.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 51.3% 1.95 +12.7%

Draw 17.7% 24.4% 4.10 -16.5%

Away win 24.5% 34.7% 2.88 -17.7%

Over 2.5 74.5% 80.0% 1.25 -6.9%

Over 3.5 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

BTTS 70.3% 80.0% 1.25 -12.1%

Home O1.5 77.1% 69.0% 1.45 +11.8%

Away O1.5 48.0% 57.8% 1.73 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob70.3%

H 58% / xG 3.2-1.8 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.7%

#2 2–1 6.4%

#3 3–2 5.9%

#4 2–2 5.6%

#5 4–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ABB3.2

Real Oruro1.8

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ABB · PPG 1.80

REAL ORURO · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ABB (H) 57.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +12.7%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -16.5%

Real Oruro (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

ABB face Real Oruro in Bolivia - Primera División on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ABB a 58% chance, the draw 18% and Real Oruro 25%, so ABB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for ABB and 1.8 for Real Oruro (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ABB are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.17 for Real Oruro. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.0%.

ABB vs Real Oruro Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bolivia - Primera División Predictions