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Alianza Lima W vs Defensores W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Clausura - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 20:15

Alianza Lima W

PPG 2.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Defensores W

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +3.97 for Home, form 2.57 vs 0.20 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-10.3%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.4%1-11.5%1-20.3%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-07.6%2-13.4%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.1%3-14.9%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-041.2%4+-118.3%4+-24.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 81.8% — — —

Draw 11.8% — — —

Away win 6.4% — — —

Over 2.5 73.6% — — —

Over 3.5 54.0% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 13.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.4 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob45.4%

H 82% / xG 4.4-0.4 / O2.5 74% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 12.3%

#2 3–0 11.1%

#3 5–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 4–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Lima W4.4

Defensores W0.4

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA LIMA W · PPG 2.57

DEFENSORES W · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.97 for Home, form 2.57 vs 0.20 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Lima W (H) 81.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 11.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Defensores W (A) 6.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Lima W face Defensores W in Peru - Liga Women on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Lima W a 82% chance, the draw 12% and Defensores W 6%, so Alianza Lima W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.4 for Alianza Lima W and 0.4 for Defensores W (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Lima W are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.20 for Defensores W.

Alianza Lima W vs Defensores W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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