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Rosario Central Res. vs Instituto Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 18:00

Rosario Central Res.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Instituto Res.

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-18.7%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.5%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-18.9%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.3%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 25.0% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 22.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosario Central Res.1.4

Instituto Res.0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSARIO CENTRAL RES. · PPG 1.50

INSTITUTO RES. · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rosario Central Res. (H) 48.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Instituto Res. (A) 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosario Central Res. face Instituto Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosario Central Res. a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Instituto Res. 25%, so Rosario Central Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rosario Central Res. and 0.9 for Instituto Res. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosario Central Res. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.10 for Instituto Res..

Rosario Central Res. vs Instituto Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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