Today / Argentina - Reserve League / Atlético Tucumán Res. vs Sarmiento Res.

Atlético Tucumán Res. vs Sarmiento Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 18:00

Atlético Tucumán Res.

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sarmiento Res.

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-16.5%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.7%1-111.2%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.7%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 23.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 28.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Tucumán Res.1.7

Sarmiento Res.1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO TUCUMÁN RES. · PPG 1.80

SARMIENTO RES. · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Tucumán Res. (H) 52.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sarmiento Res. (A) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Tucumán Res. face Sarmiento Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Tucumán Res. a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Sarmiento Res. 23%, so Atlético Tucumán Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atlético Tucumán Res. and 1.0 for Sarmiento Res. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Tucumán Res. are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.40 for Sarmiento Res..

Atlético Tucumán Res. vs Sarmiento Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Reserve League Predictions