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Aragua FC vs Bolívar Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 20:00

Aragua FC

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bolívar

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-113.5%0-26.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.2%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.1%2-16.7%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.4%3-12.2%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% — — —

Draw 31.4% — — —

Away win 28.4% — — —

Over 2.5 37.3% — — —

Over 3.5 20.2% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 27.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.7%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aragua FC1.0

Bolívar0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAGUA FC · PPG 1.57

BOLÍVAR · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 1.95 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aragua FC (H) 40.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bolívar (A) 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aragua FC face Bolívar in Venezuela - Segunda División on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aragua FC a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Bolívar 28%, so Aragua FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Aragua FC and 0.9 for Bolívar (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aragua FC are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Bolívar.

Aragua FC vs Bolívar Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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