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Atletico el Vigia FC vs Deportivo Lara Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Regular Season - 20 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 19:30

Atletico el Vigia FC

PPG 0.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Lara

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -1.12 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-113.8%0-212.8%0-38.0%0-4+5.6%1 1-05.5%1-110.2%1-29.5%1-35.9%1-4+4.2%2 2-02.0%2-13.8%2-23.5%2-32.2%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.5%3-10.9%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.2% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 60.2% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 50.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob49.2%

A 60% / xG 0.7-1.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.8%

#2 0–1 13.8%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico el Vigia FC0.7

Deportivo Lara1.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO EL VIGIA FC · PPG 0.62

DEPORTIVO LARA · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.12 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico el Vigia FC (H) 15.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Lara (A) 60.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico el Vigia FC face Deportivo Lara in Venezuela - Segunda División on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico el Vigia FC a 15% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Lara 60%, so Deportivo Lara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Atletico el Vigia FC and 1.9 for Deportivo Lara (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico el Vigia FC are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.88 for Deportivo Lara.

Atletico el Vigia FC vs Deportivo Lara Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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