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TS Galaxy vs Richards Bay Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

TS Galaxy

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Richards Bay

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

// Model verdict

Home 46% chance

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 39.4% — a clear edge.

+58.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-16.2%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-110.6%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.4%2-19.1%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-15.2%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.4% 39.4% 2.54 +58.5%

Draw 23.2% 34.5% 2.90 -32.7%

Away win 14.4% 32.8% 3.05 -56.1%

Over 2.5 43.1% 35.7% 2.80 +20.7%

Over 3.5 22.2% 17.4% 5.75 +27.7%

BTTS 40.6% 46.5% 2.15 -12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob40.6%

H 62% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 2–0 13.4%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 0–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TS Galaxy1.7

Richards Bay0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TS GALAXY · PPG 1.45

RICHARDS BAY · PPG 0.58

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

46%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.45) vs P(Home)=62.4%

Win probability 1X2

TS Galaxy (H) 62.4%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +58.5%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -32.7%

Richards Bay (A) 14.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -56.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

TS Galaxy face Richards Bay in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TS Galaxy a 62% chance, the draw 23% and Richards Bay 14%, so TS Galaxy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for TS Galaxy and 0.7 for Richards Bay (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TS Galaxy are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.58 for Richards Bay. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +58.5%. This match finished 0-1.

TS Galaxy vs Richards Bay Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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