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San Martín Mendoza vs Costa Brava Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 19:30

San Martín Mendoza

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Costa Brava

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.0%0-111.1%0-22.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.6%1-110.5%1-22.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.1%2-14.9%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.5%3-11.6%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% — — —

Draw 30.6% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 33.6% — — —

Over 3.5 13.1% — — —

BTTS 44.5% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 13.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.5%

H 48% / xG 0.9-0.4 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.0%

#2 1–0 23.6%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martín Mendoza0.9

Costa Brava0.4

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTÍN MENDOZA · PPG 2.00

COSTA BRAVA · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.50, combined xG 1.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Martín Mendoza (H) 48.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Costa Brava (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martín Mendoza face Costa Brava in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martín Mendoza a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Costa Brava 21%, so San Martín Mendoza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for San Martín Mendoza and 0.4 for Costa Brava (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martín Mendoza are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.62 for Costa Brava.

San Martín Mendoza vs Costa Brava Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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