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San Martin Formosa vs Sol de América Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 19:00

San Martin Formosa

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sol de América

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.1%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.0%1-110.0%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-16.4%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-14.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 21.7% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 10.0%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martin Formosa2.0

Sol de América0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTIN FORMOSA · PPG 2.50

SOL DE AMÉRICA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Martin Formosa (H) 55.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sol de América (A) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martin Formosa face Sol de América in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martin Formosa a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Sol de América 22%, so San Martin Formosa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for San Martin Formosa and 0.8 for Sol de América (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martin Formosa are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.88 for Sol de América.

San Martin Formosa vs Sol de América Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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