Today / Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol / Alianza FC vs UMECIT

Alianza FC vs UMECIT Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura - 1 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:15

Alianza FC

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

UMECIT

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.6%0-23.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.0%1-19.4%1-26.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.8%3-16.4%3-24.3%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.1%4+-23.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% — — —

Draw 22.2% — — —

Away win 24.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 41.3% — — —

BTTS 62.6% — — —

Home O1.5 55.7% — — —

Away O1.5 41.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.6%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza FC2.0

UMECIT1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA FC · PPG 1.80

UMECIT · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alianza FC (H) 53.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

UMECIT (A) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza FC face UMECIT in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza FC a 53% chance, the draw 22% and UMECIT 25%, so Alianza FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Alianza FC and 1.3 for UMECIT (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza FC are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.80 for UMECIT.

Alianza FC vs UMECIT Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

More Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol Predictions