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Deportivo Metalurgico vs Estrella de Berisso Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Metalurgico

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Estrella de Berisso

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.67 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.33 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-13.5%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.4%1-17.6%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.8%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.6%3-16.1%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.6%4+-15.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.0% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 12.6% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.5%

H 66% / xG 2.2-0.5 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.8%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 3–0 11.6%

#4 1–1 7.6%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Metalurgico2.2

Estrella de Berisso0.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO METALURGICO · PPG 2.00

ESTRELLA DE BERISSO · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.67 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Metalurgico (H) 66.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Estrella de Berisso (A) 12.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Metalurgico face Estrella de Berisso in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Metalurgico a 66% chance, the draw 21% and Estrella de Berisso 13%, so Deportivo Metalurgico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Deportivo Metalurgico and 0.5 for Estrella de Berisso (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Metalurgico are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Estrella de Berisso.

Deportivo Metalurgico vs Estrella de Berisso Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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