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Independiente Medellín W vs Atlético Nacional W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 20:30

Independiente Medellín W

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atlético Nacional W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.02, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-112.3%0-26.8%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.2%1-113.4%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.6%2-17.3%2-24.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.4%3-12.6%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% — — —

Draw 27.5% — — —

Away win 33.4% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

A 33% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Medellín W1.1

Atlético Nacional W1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLÍN W · PPG 3.00

ATLÉTICO NACIONAL W · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.02, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Medellín W (H) 39.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atlético Nacional W (A) 33.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Medellín W face Atlético Nacional W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Medellín W a 39% chance, the draw 28% and Atlético Nacional W 33%, so Independiente Medellín W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Independiente Medellín W and 1.1 for Atlético Nacional W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Medellín W are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Atlético Nacional W.

Independiente Medellín W vs Atlético Nacional W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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