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Sportivo Barracas vs El Porvenir Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 18:00

Sportivo Barracas

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

El Porvenir

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.7%0-114.4%0-24.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.3%1-112.2%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.2%2-15.2%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.3%3-11.5%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 30.9% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 33.6% — — —

Over 3.5 17.1% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 18.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 31%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 77%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.4%

H 46% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.7%

#2 1–0 19.3%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–1 14.4%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Barracas0.8

El Porvenir0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO BARRACAS · PPG 1.55

EL PORVENIR · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 1.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Barracas (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

El Porvenir (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Barracas face El Porvenir in Argentina - Primera C on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Barracas a 46% chance, the draw 31% and El Porvenir 24%, so Sportivo Barracas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Sportivo Barracas and 0.6 for El Porvenir (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Barracas are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.30 for El Porvenir.

Sportivo Barracas vs El Porvenir Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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