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Petare FC vs Aragua FC Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:30

Petare FC

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aragua FC

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-036.9%0-114.7%0-22.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.1%1-18.8%1-21.8%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-06.6%2-12.6%2-20.5%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.3%3-10.5%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% — — —

Draw 37.5% — — —

Away win 24.3% — — —

Over 2.5 23.1% — — —

Over 3.5 9.8% — — —

BTTS 27.8% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob27.8%

H 38% / xG 0.6-0.4 / U2.5 23% / NoBTTS 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 36.9%

#2 1–0 22.1%

#3 0–1 14.7%

#4 1–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Petare FC0.6

Aragua FC0.4

COMBINED 1.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.1% · O3.5 PROB 9.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PETARE FC · PPG 2.14

ARAGUA FC · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 1.00 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Petare FC (H) 38.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 37.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aragua FC (A) 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Petare FC face Aragua FC in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Petare FC a 38% chance, the draw 38% and Aragua FC 24%, so Petare FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Petare FC and 0.4 for Aragua FC (1.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 23% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Petare FC are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.29 for Aragua FC.

Petare FC vs Aragua FC Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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