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Deportivo Lara vs Club Atletico Barinas Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 21:00

Deportivo Lara

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Club Atletico Barinas

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.6%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.6%1-18.3%1-24.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.5%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-17.6%4+-24.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 20.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 41.6% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.5%

H 57% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Lara2.3

Club Atletico Barinas1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO LARA · PPG 2.12

CLUB ATLETICO BARINAS · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Lara (H) 57.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Club Atletico Barinas (A) 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Lara face Club Atletico Barinas in Venezuela - Segunda División on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Lara a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Club Atletico Barinas 20%, so Deportivo Lara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Deportivo Lara and 1.1 for Club Atletico Barinas (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Lara are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.88 for Club Atletico Barinas.

Deportivo Lara vs Club Atletico Barinas Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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