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SW Essen vs Monheim Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Niederrhein - 28 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

SW Essen

PPG 1.38 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Monheim

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.2%0-24.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.9%1 1-05.0%1-19.1%1-28.2%1-34.9%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.1%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.5%3-14.6%3-24.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.0%4+-22.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 40.2% — — —

Over 2.5 68.7% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 68.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob68.8%

A 40% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 0–1✓ 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SW Essen1.7

Monheim1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SW ESSEN · PPG 1.38

MONHEIM · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

SW Essen (H) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Monheim (A) 40.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SW Essen face Monheim in Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SW Essen a 38% chance, the draw 22% and Monheim 40%, so Monheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for SW Essen and 1.8 for Monheim (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SW Essen are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.36 for Monheim. This match finished 0-1.

SW Essen vs Monheim Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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