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Homberg vs Union Frintrop Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Niederrhein - 28 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Homberg

PPG 1.15 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Union Frintrop

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.15), Away POOR (0.86)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.1%0-25.6%0-33.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-05.2%1-19.6%1-28.8%1-35.4%1-4+3.8%2 2-04.1%2-17.5%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.1%3-13.9%3-23.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.2%4+-22.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.1% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 44.5% — — —

Over 2.5 66.0% — — —

Over 3.5 44.2% — — —

BTTS 66.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob66.5%

A 44% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Homberg1.6

Union Frintrop1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HOMBERG · PPG 1.15

UNION FRINTROP · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.15), Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Homberg (H) 33.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Union Frintrop (A) 44.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Homberg face Union Frintrop in Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Homberg a 33% chance, the draw 22% and Union Frintrop 45%, so Union Frintrop are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Homberg and 1.8 for Union Frintrop (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Homberg are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 0.86 for Union Frintrop. This match finished 1-0.

Homberg vs Union Frintrop Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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