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Chitipa United vs Ekhaya Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 12:30

Chitipa United

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ekhaya

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-116.3%0-28.3%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-013.0%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.3%2-15.4%2-22.8%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.4%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% — — —

Draw 31.1% — — —

Away win 39.8% — — —

Over 2.5 39.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 32.2% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

A 40% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.0%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 16.3%

#4 1–0 13.0%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chitipa United0.8

Ekhaya1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHITIPA UNITED · PPG 2.00

EKHAYA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.21, combined xG 1.83 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chitipa United (H) 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ekhaya (A) 39.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chitipa United face Ekhaya in Malawi - Super League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chitipa United a 29% chance, the draw 31% and Ekhaya 40%, so Ekhaya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Chitipa United and 1.0 for Ekhaya (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chitipa United are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Ekhaya.

Chitipa United vs Ekhaya Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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