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CIVO United vs Moyale Barracks Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 12:30

CIVO United

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Moyale Barracks

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-111.6%0-24.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.5%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.8%2-17.2%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.6%3-12.7%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% — — —

Draw 30.6% — — —

Away win 25.2% — — —

Over 2.5 39.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.0% — — —

BTTS 46.7% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.7%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.7%

#2 1–0 17.5%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 0–1 11.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CIVO United1.1

Moyale Barracks0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CIVO UNITED · PPG 1.00

MOYALE BARRACKS · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 1.85 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CIVO United (H) 44.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Moyale Barracks (A) 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

CIVO United face Moyale Barracks in Malawi - Super League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CIVO United a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Moyale Barracks 25%, so CIVO United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for CIVO United and 0.7 for Moyale Barracks (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CIVO United are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Moyale Barracks.

CIVO United vs Moyale Barracks Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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