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Guabirá vs Real Oruro Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura - 11 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 21:15

Guabirá

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Oruro

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.3%0-22.2%0-31.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-03.1%1-15.8%1-25.5%1-33.4%1-4+2.5%2 2-03.9%2-17.3%2-26.9%2-34.3%2-4+3.2%3 3-03.2%3-16.1%3-25.8%3-33.7%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-17.0%4+-26.7%4+-34.2%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 28.0% — — —

Over 2.5 71.1% — — —

Over 3.5 49.7% — — —

BTTS 69.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.3% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.5%

H 50% / xG 2.5-1.9 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.3%

#2 2–2 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 3–1 6.1%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guabirá2.5

Real Oruro1.9

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.1% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GUABIRÁ · PPG 1.75

REAL ORURO · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guabirá (H) 49.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Oruro (A) 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guabirá face Real Oruro in Bolivia - Primera División on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guabirá a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Real Oruro 28%, so Guabirá are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Guabirá and 1.9 for Real Oruro (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guabirá are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.40 for Real Oruro.

Guabirá vs Real Oruro Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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