Kasimpasa vs Alanyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Turkey - Süper Lig Regular Season - 30 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu· Istanbul Sunday, April 19, 2026 11:30

Kasimpasa PPG 1.00

1-0 HIT CS3

Alanyaspor PPG 0.93

Away· +2.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Kasimpasa face Alanyaspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kasimpasa a 31% chance, the draw 29% and Alanyaspor 40%, so Alanyaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kasimpasa and 1.2 for Alanyaspor (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kasimpasa are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.93 for Alanyaspor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 30.8%

Odds: 2.70 EV: -16.8%

Draw 29.0%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -5.8%

Away 40.2%

Odds: 2.56 EV: +2.9%

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 37.6% Odds: 2.10 -21.0%

Over 3.5 18.0% Odds: 3.80 -31.6%

BTTS 44.1% Odds: 1.80 -20.6%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✔

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Kasimpasa

1.00

Alanyaspor

1.19

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.93)