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Kasimpasa vs Alanyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 11:30

Kasimpasa

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Alanyaspor

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-113.3%0-27.9%0-33.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.2%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.6%2-16.7%2-24.0%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.9%3-12.2%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 37.0% 2.70 -16.8%

Draw 29.0% 30.8% 3.25 -5.8%

Away win 40.2% 39.1% 2.56 +2.9%

Over 2.5 37.6% 47.6% 2.10 -21.0%

Over 3.5 18.0% 26.3% 3.80 -31.6%

BTTS 44.1% 55.6% 1.80 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob44.1%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 13.3%

#3 1–0✓ 11.2%

#4 0–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kasimpasa1.0

Alanyaspor1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KASIMPASA · PPG 1.00

ALANYASPOR · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Kasimpasa (H) 30.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.8%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.8%

Alanyaspor (A) 40.2%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kasimpasa face Alanyaspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kasimpasa a 31% chance, the draw 29% and Alanyaspor 40%, so Alanyaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kasimpasa and 1.2 for Alanyaspor (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kasimpasa are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.93 for Alanyaspor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Kasimpasa vs Alanyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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