Today / Bolivia - Primera División / Independiente Petrolero vs Real Potosí

Independiente Petrolero vs Real Potosí Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura - 9 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 23:00

Independiente Petrolero

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Potosí

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-110.5%0-25.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.1%1-113.1%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.2%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.1%3-13.4%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 57.8% 1.73 -20.6%

Draw 26.7% 26.3% 3.80 +0.9%

Away win 27.3% 25.6% 3.90 +3.9%

Over 2.5 47.4% 61.7% 1.62 -23.2%

Over 3.5 28.8% 40.0% 2.50 -16.8%

BTTS 49.6% 63.7% 1.57 -22.1%

Home O1.5 38.0% 60.6% 1.65 -37.3%

Away O1.5 36.3% 37.0% 2.70 -2.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.6%

H 46% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Petrolero1.2

Real Potosí1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 1.75

REAL POTOSÍ · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=45.9%

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Petrolero (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -20.6%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +0.9%

Real Potosí (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Petrolero face Real Potosí in Bolivia - Primera División on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Petrolero a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Real Potosí 27%, so Independiente Petrolero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Independiente Petrolero and 1.1 for Real Potosí (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Petrolero are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.67 for Real Potosí. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.9%.

Independiente Petrolero vs Real Potosí Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bolivia - Primera División Predictions