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Dempo vs Rajasthan Utd Prediction— India - I-League

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:30

Dempo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rajasthan Utd

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.0%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.4%1-110.7%1-26.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.5%3-15.7%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.8%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% — — —

Draw 23.2% — — —

Away win 27.2% — — —

Over 2.5 58.9% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 59.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.8%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 8.4%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–2✓ 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dempo1.8

Rajasthan Utd1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEMPO · PPG 2.00

RAJASTHAN UTD · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

Dempo (H) 49.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rajasthan Utd (A) 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dempo face Rajasthan Utd in India - I-League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dempo a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Rajasthan Utd 27%, so Dempo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dempo and 1.3 for Rajasthan Utd (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dempo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Rajasthan Utd. This match finished 1-2.

Dempo vs Rajasthan Utd Prediction— India - I-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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