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Real Kashmir vs Sreenidi Deccan Prediction— India - I-League

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Real Kashmir

PPG 0.75 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Sreenidi Deccan

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 20.4% — a clear edge.

+151.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-112.6%0-29.8%0-35.1%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.7%1-112.1%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.7%2-15.8%2-24.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.2%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 64.9% 1.54 -64.1%

Draw 25.5% 21.5% 4.65 +18.6%

Away win 51.3% 20.4% 4.90 +151.4%

Over 2.5 46.1% 72.5% 1.38 -36.4%

Over 3.5 24.6% 50.0% 2.00 -50.8%

BTTS 48.7% 69.0% 1.45 -29.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob48.7%

A 51% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.6%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–2 9.8%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Kashmir1.0

Sreenidi Deccan1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL KASHMIR · PPG 0.75

SREENIDI DECCAN · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Real Kashmir (H) 23.3%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -64.1%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +18.6%

Sreenidi Deccan (A) 51.3%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +151.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Kashmir face Sreenidi Deccan in India - I-League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Kashmir a 23% chance, the draw 26% and Sreenidi Deccan 51%, so Sreenidi Deccan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Real Kashmir and 1.6 for Sreenidi Deccan (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Kashmir are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Sreenidi Deccan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +151.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Real Kashmir vs Sreenidi Deccan Prediction— India - I-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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