Today / India - I-League / Shillong Lajong vs Dempo

Shillong Lajong vs Dempo Prediction— India - I-League

Promotion Group - 1 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Shillong Lajong

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dempo

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.9%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.9%1-17.3%1-23.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.8%2-19.3%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.5%3-17.9%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-19.3%4+-24.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 46.5% 2.15 +21.5%

Draw 23.0% 32.3% 3.10 -28.7%

Away win 20.5% 33.3% 3.00 -38.5%

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 48.7% — — —

BTTS 58.5% 59.9% 1.67 -2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 56% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 8.8%

#3 1–1 7.3%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shillong Lajong2.6

Dempo1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 48.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHILLONG LAJONG · PPG 1.75

DEMPO · PPG 0.25

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=56.5%

Win probability 1X2

Shillong Lajong (H) 56.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +21.5%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -28.7%

Dempo (A) 20.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -38.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shillong Lajong face Dempo in India - I-League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shillong Lajong a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Dempo 21%, so Shillong Lajong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Shillong Lajong and 1.1 for Dempo (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shillong Lajong are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.25 for Dempo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Shillong Lajong vs Dempo Prediction— India - I-League

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - I-League Predictions