Shillong Lajong vs Dempo Prediction— India - I-League

India - I-League Promotion Group - 1 Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Shillong Lajong PPG 1.75

0-0 MISS

Dempo PPG 0.25

Home· +21.5% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Shillong Lajong face Dempo in India - I-League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shillong Lajong a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Dempo 21%, so Shillong Lajong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Shillong Lajong and 1.1 for Dempo (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shillong Lajong are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.25 for Dempo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.5%

Odds: 2.15 EV: +21.5%

Draw 23.0%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -28.7%

Away 20.5%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -38.5%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.5% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 48.7% Odds: — —

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.67 -2.3%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Shillong Lajong

2.55

Dempo

1.06

Model SuggestionOver 2.5  ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5/Under 57%

BTTS/No 57%

Score Hit 14%

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=56.5%