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Namdhari vs Chanmari Prediction— India - I-League

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 10:30

Namdhari

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Chanmari

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+12.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.9%0-25.8%0-33.8%0-4+2.9%1 1-04.7%1-19.1%1-28.9%1-35.8%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.6%2-17.0%2-26.9%2-34.5%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.9%3-13.6%3-23.6%3-32.3%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 47.6% 2.10 -35.5%

Draw 21.8% 29.0% 3.45 -24.8%

Away win 47.5% 35.1% 2.85 +35.4%

Over 2.5 68.0% 60.6% 1.65 +12.2%

Over 3.5 46.4% — — —

BTTS 67.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob67.6%

A 48% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Namdhari1.5

Chanmari2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.0% · O3.5 PROB 46.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NAMDHARI · PPG 0.33

CHANMARI · PPG 0.75

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.33) vs Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Namdhari (H) 30.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -35.5%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -24.8%

Chanmari (A) 47.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +35.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Namdhari face Chanmari in India - I-League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Namdhari a 31% chance, the draw 22% and Chanmari 48%, so Chanmari are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Namdhari and 2.0 for Chanmari (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Namdhari are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.75 for Chanmari. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.4%. This match finished 1-4.

Namdhari vs Chanmari Prediction— India - I-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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