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Diamond Harbour vs Gokulam Prediction— India - I-League

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 10:30

Diamond Harbour

PPG 2.00 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gokulam

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 81.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+35.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-11.8%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.6%1-15.4%1-22.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.9%2-18.1%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-18.1%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-015.6%4+-112.7%4+-25.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 81.0% 59.9% 1.67 +35.3%

Draw 12.0% 28.6% 3.50 -58.0%

Away win 7.1% 23.1% 4.33 -69.3%

Over 2.5 73.3% — — —

Over 3.5 52.8% — — —

BTTS 52.9% 61.7% 1.62 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 81% / xG 3.0-0.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.9%

#2 3–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Diamond Harbour3.0

Gokulam0.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DIAMOND HARBOUR · PPG 2.00

GOKULAM · PPG 0.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Diamond Harbour (H) 81.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +35.3%

Draw 12.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -58.0%

Gokulam (A) 7.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -69.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Diamond Harbour face Gokulam in India - I-League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Diamond Harbour a 81% chance, the draw 12% and Gokulam 7%, so Diamond Harbour are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Diamond Harbour and 0.8 for Gokulam (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Diamond Harbour are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Gokulam. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.3%. This match finished 5-2.

Diamond Harbour vs Gokulam Prediction— India - I-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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