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Wollongong W. vs St George City Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 05:00

Wollongong W.

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

St George City

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-18.7%0-23.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.1%1-112.2%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-18.6%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.1%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 46.5% 2.15 +4.9%

Draw 27.1% 31.3% 3.20 -8.0%

Away win 24.1% 32.3% 3.10 -15.2%

Over 2.5 47.1% 51.8% 1.93 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.2% 29.9% 3.35 -3.3%

BTTS 48.5% 58.8% 1.70 -17.5%

Home O1.5 43.2% 46.5% 2.15 -7.1%

Away O1.5 22.5% 37.7% 2.65 -24.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wollongong W.1.4

St George City0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 1.56

ST GEORGE CITY · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=48.8%

Win probability 1X2

Wollongong W. (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +4.9%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.0%

St George City (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wollongong W. face St George City in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wollongong W. a 49% chance, the draw 27% and St George City 24%, so Wollongong W. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Wollongong W. and 0.8 for St George City (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wollongong W. are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.67 for St George City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.9%.

Wollongong W. vs St George City Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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