Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / Blacktown City vs Sydney Utd

Blacktown City vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 05:00

Blacktown City

PPG 0.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sydney Utd

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-110.9%0-210.2%0-36.4%0-4+4.6%1 1-05.6%1-110.6%1-29.9%1-36.2%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.7%2-15.1%2-24.8%2-33.0%2-4+2.2%3 3-00.9%3-11.7%3-21.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.7% 29.9% 3.35 -16.4%

Draw 23.7% 29.4% 3.40 -11.7%

Away win 54.6% 51.3% 1.95 +6.5%

Over 2.5 54.1% 57.1% 1.75 -5.3%

Over 3.5 33.2% 35.1% 2.85 -5.4%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 35.2% 35.1% 2.85 +0.3%

Away O1.5 49.8% 55.6% 1.80 -10.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.6%

A 55% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 0–2 10.2%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blacktown City1.0

Sydney Utd1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 0.70

SYDNEY UTD · PPG 1.90

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.90) vs Home POOR (0.70)

Win probability 1X2

Blacktown City (H) 21.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -16.4%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.7%

Sydney Utd (A) 54.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blacktown City face Sydney Utd in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blacktown City a 22% chance, the draw 24% and Sydney Utd 55%, so Sydney Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Blacktown City and 1.9 for Sydney Utd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blacktown City are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.90 for Sydney Utd. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.9%.

Blacktown City vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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