Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / Rockdale vs NWS Spirit

Rockdale vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 05:00

Rockdale

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

NWS Spirit

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.9%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.8%1-112.1%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.7%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 50.0% 2.00 -8.8%

Draw 26.5% 29.9% 3.35 -6.7%

Away win 27.8% 30.3% 3.30 -5.0%

Over 2.5 51.7% 60.6% 1.65 -14.7%

Over 3.5 29.7% 38.5% 2.60 -13.7%

BTTS 55.6% 66.7% 1.50 -16.6%

Home O1.5 43.2% 54.6% 1.83 -20.9%

Away O1.5 35.9% 42.6% 2.35 -15.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 0–0 7.1%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rockdale1.5

NWS Spirit1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCKDALE · PPG 1.50

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.90)

Win probability 1X2

Rockdale (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -8.8%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.7%

NWS Spirit (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rockdale face NWS Spirit in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rockdale a 46% chance, the draw 27% and NWS Spirit 28%, so Rockdale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rockdale and 1.1 for NWS Spirit (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rockdale are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.90 for NWS Spirit.

Rockdale vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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