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Marconi S. vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 05:00

Marconi S.

PPG 2.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

S George Saints

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-13.0%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.5%1-17.2%1-22.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-18.5%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.6%3-16.7%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.1%4+-17.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 78.1% 1.28 -20.6%

Draw 19.7% 21.7% 4.60 -5.6%

Away win 18.4% 10.0% 10.00 +50.4%

Over 2.5 60.9% 67.6% 1.48 -9.9%

Over 3.5 37.1% 45.5% 2.20 -18.4%

BTTS 48.5% 59.9% 1.67 -19.0%

Home O1.5 61.2% 75.2% 1.33 -18.6%

Away O1.5 18.0% 26.7% 3.75 -19.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 62% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.7%

#2 3–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 1–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi S.2.4

S George Saints0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI S. · PPG 2.56

S GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 0.91

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs P(Home)=62.0%

Win probability 1X2

Marconi S. (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -20.6%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -5.6%

S George Saints (A) 18.4%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +50.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi S. face S George Saints in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi S. a 62% chance, the draw 20% and S George Saints 18%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Marconi S. and 0.6 for S George Saints (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi S. are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.91 for S George Saints. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +50.4%.

Marconi S. vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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