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Genclerbirligi vs Galatasaray Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 17:00

Genclerbirligi

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Galatasaray

PPG 2.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Away 72% chance

Model probability 71.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-112.8%0-213.7%0-39.9%0-4+8.7%1 1-04.0%1-18.6%1-29.2%1-36.6%1-4+5.9%2 2-01.3%2-12.9%2-23.1%2-32.2%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.3% 14.3% 7.00 -27.9%

Draw 18.2% 21.3% 4.70 -14.5%

Away win 71.5% 71.4% 1.40 +0.1%

Over 2.5 53.7% 63.7% 1.57 -15.7%

Over 3.5 31.4% 41.7% 2.40 -24.6%

BTTS 43.3% 57.1% 1.75 -24.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob43.3%

A 72% / xG 0.7-2.2 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.7%

#2 0–1 12.8%

#3 0–3 9.9%

#4 1–2✓ 9.2%

#5 1–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Genclerbirligi0.7

Galatasaray2.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GENCLERBIRLIGI · PPG 1.36

GALATASARAY · PPG 2.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

72%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.21) vs Home AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Genclerbirligi (H) 10.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -27.9%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -14.5%

Galatasaray (A) 71.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Genclerbirligi face Galatasaray in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Genclerbirligi a 10% chance, the draw 18% and Galatasaray 72%, so Galatasaray are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Genclerbirligi and 2.2 for Galatasaray (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Genclerbirligi are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 2.21 for Galatasaray. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Genclerbirligi vs Galatasaray Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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