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TOSK Tesanj vs Tomislav Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 25 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 15:30

TOSK Tesanj

PPG 1.92 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

Tomislav

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-18.3%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-112.1%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-18.7%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.6%3-14.2%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 27.7% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 42.6% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TOSK Tesanj1.5

Tomislav0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TOSK TESANJ · PPG 1.92

TOMISLAV · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.92) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

TOSK Tesanj (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tomislav (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TOSK Tesanj face Tomislav in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TOSK Tesanj a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Tomislav 23%, so TOSK Tesanj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for TOSK Tesanj and 0.8 for Tomislav (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TOSK Tesanj are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.50 for Tomislav. This match finished 3-3.

TOSK Tesanj vs Tomislav Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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