Kocaelispor vs Goztepe Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Turkey - Süper Lig Regular Season - 30 Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu· Izmit Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Kocaelispor PPG 1.47

1-1 HIT CS4

Goztepe PPG 1.57

Draw· +8.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Kocaelispor face Goztepe in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kocaelispor a 27% chance, the draw 36% and Goztepe 37%, so Goztepe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Kocaelispor and 0.9 for Goztepe (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 20% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kocaelispor are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.57 for Goztepe. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 26.7%

Odds: 2.76 EV: -26.3%

Draw 36.1%

Odds: 3.00 EV: +8.3%

Away 37.2%

Odds: 2.65 EV: -1.4%

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 19.7% Odds: 2.62 -48.4%

Over 3.5 6.9% Odds: 5.25 -63.8%

BTTS 28.1% Odds: 2.10 -41.0%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✔

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Kocaelispor

0.67

Goztepe

0.85

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away GOOD (1.57)