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Kocaelispor vs Goztepe Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Kocaelispor

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Goztepe

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.8%0-118.6%0-27.9%0-32.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.6%1-112.5%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-04.9%2-14.2%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-10.9%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 36.2% 2.76 -26.3%

Draw 36.1% 33.3% 3.00 +8.3%

Away win 37.2% 37.7% 2.65 -1.4%

Over 2.5 19.7% 38.2% 2.62 -48.4%

Over 3.5 6.9% 19.0% 5.25 -63.8%

BTTS 28.1% 47.6% 2.10 -41.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob28.1%

A 37% / xG 0.7-0.9 / U2.5 20% / NoBTTS 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.8%

#2 0–1 18.6%

#3 1–0 14.6%

#4 1–1✓ 12.5%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kocaelispor0.7

Goztepe0.9

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 19.7% · O3.5 PROB 6.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KOCAELISPOR · PPG 1.47

GOZTEPE · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Kocaelispor (H) 26.7%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -26.3%

Draw 36.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +8.3%

Goztepe (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kocaelispor face Goztepe in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kocaelispor a 27% chance, the draw 36% and Goztepe 37%, so Goztepe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Kocaelispor and 0.9 for Goztepe (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 20% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kocaelispor are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.57 for Goztepe. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Kocaelispor vs Goztepe Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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