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Travnik vs TOSK Tesanj Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 24 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:30

Travnik

PPG 2.09 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

TOSK Tesanj

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.09) vs P(Home)=48.3%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.6%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.7%1-112.5%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.1%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.5%3-14.4%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% — — —

Draw 27.2% — — —

Away win 24.5% — — —

Over 2.5 47.6% — — —

Over 3.5 23.0% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Travnik1.5

TOSK Tesanj1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TRAVNIK · PPG 2.09

TOSK TESANJ · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.09) vs P(Home)=48.3%

Win probability 1X2

Travnik (H) 48.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

TOSK Tesanj (A) 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Travnik face TOSK Tesanj in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Travnik a 48% chance, the draw 27% and TOSK Tesanj 25%, so Travnik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Travnik and 1.0 for TOSK Tesanj (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Travnik are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.91 for TOSK Tesanj. This match finished 0-1.

Travnik vs TOSK Tesanj Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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