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Al Salmiyah vs Al Shabab Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:15

Al Salmiyah

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Shabab

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Home 61% chance

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-16.3%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.2%1-110.1%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.2%2-18.0%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.1%3-14.2%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-12.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 64.1% 1.56 -15.6%

Draw 26.7% 27.0% 3.70 -0.7%

Away win 19.2% 17.9% 5.60 +4.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.8% 1.93 -10.8%

Over 3.5 16.4% 29.9% 3.35 -27.0%

BTTS 46.2% 52.6% 1.90 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 31.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.2%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.2%

#2 2–0 15.2%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 1–1 10.1%

#5 3–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Salmiyah1.6

Al Shabab0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SALMIYAH · PPG 2.00

AL SHABAB · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=54.1%

Win probability 1X2

Al Salmiyah (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -15.6%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.7%

Al Shabab (A) 19.2%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Salmiyah face Al Shabab in Kuwait - Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Salmiyah a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Al Shabab 19%, so Al Salmiyah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al Salmiyah and 0.5 for Al Shabab (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Salmiyah are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.13 for Al Shabab. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Al Salmiyah vs Al Shabab Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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