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Al Qadsia vs Al Nasar Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:35

Al Qadsia

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

UPCOMING

Al Nasar

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.0%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.9%1-112.6%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-18.9%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 60.2% 1.66 -27.0%

Draw 26.8% 27.4% 3.65 -1.3%

Away win 29.2% 21.5% 4.65 +21.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

BTTS 52.9% 56.5% 1.77 -6.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 56.5% 1.77 -29.4%

Away O1.5 32.5% 27.8% 3.60 +17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Qadsia1.4

Al Nasar1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL QADSIA · PPG 1.48

AL NASAR · PPG 1.57

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Qadsia (H) 44.0%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -27.0%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.3%

Al Nasar (A) 29.2%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Qadsia face Al Nasar in Kuwait - Premier League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Qadsia a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Al Nasar 29%, so Al Qadsia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al Qadsia and 1.1 for Al Nasar (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Qadsia are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.57 for Al Nasar. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.6%.

Al Qadsia vs Al Nasar Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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