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Al Arabi vs Al Sulaibikhat Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:50

Al Arabi

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

UPCOMING

Al Sulaibikhat

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+36.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.8%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.7%1-111.5%1-26.1%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.1%3-15.4%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 83.3% 1.20 -42.4%

Draw 24.4% 20.0% 5.00 +13.2%

Away win 27.6% 8.3% 12.00 +138.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 54.6% 40.0% 2.50 +36.5%

Home O1.5 49.9% 71.9% 1.39 -30.6%

Away O1.5 32.6% 12.5% 8.00 +160.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Arabi1.7

Al Sulaibikhat1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ARABI · PPG 1.71

AL SULAIBIKHAT · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Arabi (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -42.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +13.2%

Al Sulaibikhat (A) 27.6%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +138.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Arabi face Al Sulaibikhat in Kuwait - Premier League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Arabi a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Al Sulaibikhat 28%, so Al Arabi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al Arabi and 1.1 for Al Sulaibikhat (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Arabi are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.25 for Al Sulaibikhat. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +191.2%.

Al Arabi vs Al Sulaibikhat Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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