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ADO 20 vs Staphorst Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

ADO 20

PPG 2.27 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Staphorst

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.5%0-24.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.7%1-111.8%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.2%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-14.8%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 54.1% 1.85 -16.0%

Draw 25.0% 30.8% 3.25 -18.8%

Away win 29.6% 29.4% 3.40 +0.6%

Over 2.5 52.6% — — —

Over 3.5 30.4% — — —

BTTS 55.6% 66.7% 1.50 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 9.7%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 2–0✓ 7.6%

#5 0–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADO 201.6

Staphorst1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ADO 20 · PPG 2.27

STAPHORST · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.27) > Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

ADO 20 (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.0%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -18.8%

Staphorst (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADO 20 face Staphorst in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADO 20 a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Staphorst 30%, so ADO 20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for ADO 20 and 1.2 for Staphorst (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADO 20 are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.53 for Staphorst. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.6%. This match finished 2-0.

ADO 20 vs Staphorst Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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