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Hoogeveen vs Eemdijk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:00

Hoogeveen

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Eemdijk

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.8%0-24.3%0-33.3%0-4+3.1%1 1-03.1%1-17.0%1-27.9%1-35.9%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.8%2-16.3%2-27.2%2-35.4%2-4+5.1%3 3-01.7%3-13.8%3-24.3%3-33.3%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.6%4+-23.0%4+-32.2%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 41.7% 2.40 -17.7%

Draw 23.6% 27.8% 3.60 -9.0%

Away win 42.0% 41.7% 2.40 +0.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 65.4% 1.53 -5.6%

Over 3.5 58.0% 43.3% 2.31 +34.0%

BTTS 63.0% 69.4% 1.44 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.0%

A 42% / xG 1.8-2.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.0%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.3%

#5 1–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hoogeveen1.8

Eemdijk2.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 58.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HOOGEVEEN · PPG 1.53

EEMDIJK · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Hoogeveen (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -17.7%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.0%

Eemdijk (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hoogeveen face Eemdijk in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hoogeveen a 34% chance, the draw 24% and Eemdijk 42%, so Eemdijk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hoogeveen and 2.3 for Eemdijk (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hoogeveen are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.80 for Eemdijk. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Hoogeveen vs Eemdijk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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