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Tusla City vs Celik Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 23 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:00

Tusla City

PPG 1.27 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Celik

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.27)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-114.4%0-214.1%0-39.3%0-4+7.2%1 1-04.7%1-19.3%1-29.2%1-36.0%1-4+4.7%2 2-01.5%2-13.0%2-23.0%2-32.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.5% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 63.5% — — —

Over 2.5 52.6% — — —

Over 3.5 26.8% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob48.6%

A 64% / xG 0.6-2.0 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.1%

#2 0–1 14.4%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 0–3 9.3%

#5 1–2✓ 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tusla City0.6

Celik2.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TUSLA CITY · PPG 1.27

CELIK · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Tusla City (H) 13.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Celik (A) 63.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tusla City face Celik in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tusla City a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Celik 64%, so Celik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Tusla City and 2.0 for Celik (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tusla City are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 2.00 for Celik. This match finished 1-2.

Tusla City vs Celik Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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