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Al Arabi SC vs Al Tadhamon Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Thursday, May 14, 2026, 17:15

Al Arabi SC

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Tadhamon

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-13.0%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.2%1-16.9%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-17.9%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.5%3-16.1%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.4%4+-16.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 80.0% 1.25 -15.0%

Draw 22.8% 19.6% 5.10 +9.8%

Away win 9.2% 9.3% 10.75 -0.7%

Over 2.5 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Over 3.5 30.4% 36.4% 2.75 -16.4%

BTTS 45.9% 45.5% 2.20 +1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -31.1%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.9%

H 68% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.4%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 3–0 12.5%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Arabi SC2.3

Al Tadhamon0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ARABI SC · PPG 1.83

AL TADHAMON · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.83), Away POOR (0.57) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Arabi SC (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -15.0%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +9.8%

Al Tadhamon (A) 9.2%

ODDS 10.75 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Arabi SC face Al Tadhamon in Kuwait - Premier League on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Arabi SC a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Al Tadhamon 9%, so Al Arabi SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Al Arabi SC and 0.5 for Al Tadhamon (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Arabi SC are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.57 for Al Tadhamon. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.8%.

Al Arabi SC vs Al Tadhamon Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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