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Konyaspor vs Fenerbahce Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:00

Konyaspor

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fenerbahce

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-19.8%0-28.7%0-35.1%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.2%1-111.0%1-29.8%1-35.8%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.5%2-16.2%2-25.5%2-33.2%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.3%3-12.3%3-22.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 14.7% 6.80 +52.6%

Draw 27.0% 23.3% 4.30 +9.7%

Away win 45.4% 69.0% 1.45 -34.2%

Over 2.5 59.3% 61.7% 1.62 -3.9%

Over 3.5 32.9% 39.2% 2.55 -16.1%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Konyaspor1.1

Fenerbahce1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KONYASPOR · PPG 1.50

FENERBAHCE · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

61%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Konyaspor (H) 27.6%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +52.6%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +9.7%

Fenerbahce (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -34.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Konyaspor face Fenerbahce in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Konyaspor a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Fenerbahce 45%, so Fenerbahce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Konyaspor and 1.8 for Fenerbahce (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Konyaspor are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Fenerbahce. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +52.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Konyaspor vs Fenerbahce Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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